Wednesday, 10 May 2023

Turkey elections: Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu offer stark choices for presidency



Turks are at a historic turning point - choosing between two front-runners for the presidency offering dramatically different paths for their country's future. 
After more than 20 years in power, Recep Tayyip Erdogan promises a strong, multilateral Turkey and the creation of six million jobs, and accuses the West of trying to bring him down.

His chief rival, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, backed by a broad opposition, wants to steer this Nato member state back towards a pro-Western, more democratic stance.

The president accuses his opponents of being "pro-LGBT", while his Islamist-rooted party positions itself as on the side of the family.

Big moment for Turkish rule

Since 2017, Mr Erdogan has run Turkey with sweeping presidential powers, from a vast palace in Ankara. As executive president he can declare a state of emergency and can pick or dismiss civil servants.

If he wins, not much will change, says Selim Koru, a member of Turkey's Tepav think tank. His powers are already so broad he won't seek to extend them further, he says.

But the man seeking to replace him wants to scrap the presidential system and become an "impartial" leader, with no connection to a political party.

Mr Kilicdaroglu says he would roll Turkey back to having parliament and a prime minister in charge, and revive independent courts and a free press. "I will serve all 85 million citizens of Turkey. I will show respect for each of you," he has promised.

The other five parties in his alliance would each have a vice president, as would his party colleagues who are mayors of Ankara and Istanbul.

Before they do scrap the powerful presidency, they might need to use its powers to force through the reforms if they do not have sufficient control of parliament.

Parliamentary and presidential elections will both be taking place on 14 May.

Looking East or West


Turkey is part of the West's Nato defensive alliance, but the Erdogan presidency has sought close ties with China and Russia too, buying a Russian S-400 air defence system and inaugurating a Russian-built nuclear plant - Turkey's first - ahead of the election.

He advocates a multilateral stance, viewing Turkey as "an island of peace and security", and offering Ankara as a mediator in the Russian war in Ukraine.

His opponent and his allies, meanwhile, want to return to the process of joining the European Union and restore Turkey's military ties with the US, while maintaining relations with Russia.

If Mr Erdogan stays in power then Selim Koru believes he will continue to push Turkey away from the West, without leaving Nato. "He wants to get Turkey to a point in the medium term or distant future where Nato membership is irrelevant."

High inflation or orthodox economics?

This is a crunch moment for Turkey's economy too. Inflation is officially 43.68%, and Turks have had a cost of living crisis far more severe than most. Many will tell you the real inflation rate feels far higher.

The early Erdogan years were a byword for strong economic growth and enormous construction projects. And Turkey always stuck closely to the terms of its loan agreements with the IMF.

But in recent years his government has abandoned orthodox economic policy. It gradually eroded the independence of the central bank, says Selva Demiralp, professor of economics at Koc University, sacking three of its governors in quick succession.

Inflation soared, as interest rates were kept low - while Turkey's currency the lira depreciated to improve the trade balance and boost exports.

Mr Erdogan still promises high growth, six million new jobs and a big push for tourism, but Prof Demiralp believes his policies will keep inflation as high as 45% for months to come.

If Kemal Kilicdaroglu and his allies win the presidency and parliament, she believes a return to orthodox economic policies and an independent central bank will lower inflation to 30% by the end of 2023 and it will continue to go down after that.

Even if it means higher interest rates, Prof Demiralp believes Turkey could enjoy strong growth from foreign investment: "At the moment Turkey is rather cheap and its location, young population and the infrastructure offer mutually beneficial investment opportunities for international investors."

-BBC

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